Note: Trade away public interest obligations today for the promise of competition in 2012 (well 25% that is).

from: DSL Reports [1]

The Broadband Market in 2012

"The telcos, in terms of the size of their footprint, simply aren't a core issue for cable operators
-Sanford Bernstein's Greg Moffett

Telco deployment impact over-stated, says analyst
05:12PM Monday Jul 02 2007 by Karl
tags: stats competition business bandwidth

Sanford Bernstein Senior Analyst Craig Moffett is telling investors that TelcoTV (FiOS, U-Verse) and next-gen deployment isn't much of a threat to cable operators. Five years from now, in the year 2012, he predicts AT&T will serve just 23% of all U.S. households with U-Verse, while Verizon will serve just 15% with FiOS.

After five years and more than $23 billion spent, Verizon's FTTH investment (the most ambitious of all the baby bells) still won't have reached very far into cable competitor territory. By 2012, he predicts the following cable market overlap for FiOS: Comcast, 34%; Time Warner Cable, 25%; Cox, 16%; Cablevision, 79%.

As for U-Verse, he predicts that 60% of the AT&T network won't be upgraded, making AT&T's market impact even less dramatic. He also repeats well-voiced concerns over whether VDSL/FTTN is offering enough bandwidth (AT&T says any issues will be addressed by line bonding).

As it stands there are 348,000 FiOSTV subscribers, and the service is available to 3.1 million households (there are a million total FiOS subscribers). More than 50,000 customers have signed up for AT&T's U-Verse service, and the company says they're doing 600 installations a day.